Bullet Points: Twilight in the Desert
TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT
Matthew Simmons (Author, Peak Oil Expert)
- Energy is directly related to our national defense systems, and the ability to ensure security. This is increasingly challenged by Middle East oil in the twilight era, or an imminent peak
- Long-term supply and demand of oil is demand driven. When supply becomes a plug factor, demand outpaces supply and causes continuous increases in price
- Water injection has kept the reservoir pressures high. Oil field high technology has concealed rising water cuts
- Saudi Arabian oil fields are increasingly mature
- Water injection has kept the reservoir pressures high
- Oil field high technology has concealed rising water cuts
- Rock and permeability are insufficient for sustainability in remaining oil fields
- Drawing on Shell Oil CEO Jeroen van der Veer’s assertions that the world’s role in the future of oil can take either a scramble or a blueprint mode in years to come, Simmons gave these assessments:
- 40% chance of remaining at an undulating plateau. This would entail marked increased discoveries worldwide
- On the probability of per annual decrease in supply, he finds a 35% chance of a 5% decline and a 25% chance of a10% decline
- Additionally, Simmons cited rust (the age of oil/gas delivery infrastructure), a decreasing spare capacity, and an increasingly invisible inventory as other related factors in the onset of a peak era
- Overall, Simmons points to an imminent future decline in the feasibility of reliance on Middle East oil
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