Bullet Points: National Petroleum Council Report: Facing the Hard Truths About Energy

THE ABOVE-GROUND CHALLENGE: NATIONAL PETROLEUM COUNCIL REPORT
Frank Verrastro and Sarah Ladislaw (Center for Strategic and International Studies)

• The report was commissioned by former Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman in an attempt to discern the future of oil and other fossil fuels
• Challenging but manageable view of the future of oil to 2030
  • Other reports project further out — as far as 2050 and draw more alarming conclusions
• Study listed seven findings about the current and emerging state of energy
  • Energy demand will grow 50% through 2030, and remain predominantly fossil fuel-based, i.e., coal, oil, and gas
  • Study survey suggests that the global energy resource base (molecules in the ground) is enormous, but that “above ground“ risks are substantial, posing problems for production, conversion, and delivery.9 [This is in stark contrast to the views of Matt Simmons, Congressman Roscoe Bartlett and others that resource based “peak oil“ is an emerging clear and present reality]
  • To meet projected increases in global energy demand, all sources of energy (conventional, non-conventional, nuclear, renewables, etc.) will be needed, but all have challenges — and new energy forms often require new infrastructure
  • Massive infrastructural investments are required to enable diversification — this takes time for each technology
  • Because of scale and lead times, US energy independence any time soon is unrealistic. Independence should not be confused with enhancing energy security — and there are things we can and should be doing now to do just that (see National Petroleum Council recommendations)
  • The bulk of future energy demand growth is forecast to come from developing and emerging economies rather than the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development — this is part of the changing energy landscape
• The National Petroleum Council’s authors identify a set of balanced recommendations to enhance security and create sustainable futures. These include:
  • Significant improvements in energy efficiency across the board — transport, residential, commercial, and industrial sectors
  • Expand and diversify supply — conventional, non-conventional, renewables, etc.
  • Strengthen US and global security and better manage geopolitics
  • Develop the capabilities to meet the challenges — both infrastructure and human skills/capabilities and increased research and technology development and deployment
  • Price carbon