Bullet Points: A Conversation with Lester Brown

PLAN B 3.0
Lester Brown (Earth Policy Institute)

• The interdependence of energy and climate change and their effects on civilization:
• Arctic ice is melting at an unprecedented rate
  • In 2008, a piece twice the size of Great Britain broke off. Later a three mile-wide glacier in Greenland separated from land
  • Melting is currently occurring at a rate of 2 meters per hour
  • This dramatic rate is causing seismic events in the process
  • Sea levels could rise as high as 16 feet from Antarctica and 23 feet from Greenland, a total of 39 feet worldwide
• China; ice melting rates are unprecedented
  • Concerns of water depletion
    • Some Chinese glaciers are melting at a rate of 7% per year (Illumisoc glacier is melting at a rate of 2 meters per hour)
    • The Ganges and Yellow rivers are threatened with becoming seasonal rivers
    • Could threaten migratory habits, inland development, population, and sustainability
    • Could greatly affect Chinese and Indian security in years to come
  • Threat to food security; food is a world market
    • If Chinese drive up food prices this will add tension to the fact that China owns over $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds
• All tied to CO2 emissions
  • What percentage is necessary to cut in order to avoid further exacerbating the effects?
  • Some maintain 80% cut by 2050 is adequate
  • Brown’s plan — 80% cut by 2020 is necessary
• Two threats compound the global perspective on the security of civilization:
  • Peak oil — indicated by increasingly higher prices and decreasing degrees of newly discovered reserves. When peak oil does occur, no state will get more oil without another getting less
  • Rise in food prices associated with the shift to ethanol (either cane or corn) and landmass taken up by it
    • Through grain, the food and energy markets are fusing
    • Both have strains on each other
    • Tied to the value of oil
    • Threats will lead to an increase in the number of failed states. How many failed states are necessary before civilization completely unravels?
• Findings and recommendations:
  • Stabilize the climate by pursuing new energy infrastructures and renewable energy solutions like wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower
  • Address population; in turn this would address world poverty problem
  • Restore Earth’s systems (i.e. soils), including de-carbonizing the atmosphere
  • Increase the number of trees on Earth in order to sequester carbon. A newly planted tree in the tropics can remove 50 kilograms of CO2 from the atmosphere each year during its 20 to 50 year growth period
  • Lower income tax and increase COtax (this would not increase the net amount of taxes, but rather shift incentives in order to effect national behavior)
  • Efficiency and conservation
  • Retrofitting existing buildings with better insulation and efficient appliances can cut energy use by 20 to 50%
  • Energy efficient compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) can cut energy use by 75% and last up to ten times as long. The energy saved by replacing one conventional incandescent 100-watt bulb with CFL over its lifetime is enough to drive a Toyota Prius hybrid from New York City to San Francisco
  • Appliances: Japan’s Top Runner Program sets efficiency standards that have helped Japan boost the efficiency of refrigerators by 55%, air conditioners by 68%, and computers by 99%
    • Standby mode adds up to 10% electricity consumption. Industry standards like South Korea’s 1-watt standby limit push manufacturers toward energy efficient design. Unplugging electronics or using smart power strips also helps