Bullet Points: Biofuels - Potential National Implications
BIOFUELS AND BIOMASS
Dr. Michael Pacheco (National Renewable Energy Laboratory);
Suzanne Hunt (WorldWatch Institute)
- Liquid biofuels currently supply around 1-2% of global transport fuels while using less than 1% of world agricultural land
- Ethanol use has grown by ~12% annually over the past 7 years, more than doubling its production
- The relative share of biofuels could be increased if a range of demand-side efficiency measures effectively reduced total fuel demand growth in the transport sector
- In addition to biofuel production, crops used for energy often also provide co-products such as animal fodder, fertilizers, and electricity
- In the US today, about half the gasoline sold at the pump is already 10% ethanol
- Biodiesel can be used in diesel engines in either its pure form or as a blend with conventional diesel fuel
- Advanced biofuels and other biofuels derived from switchgrass, garbage, and algae are now under development in the US, Europe, China, and elsewhere
- Biofuels should eventually see a move from sugar and corn to more efficient cellulosic forms. Estimated goals for the US:
- 60 billion gallons per year of biofuel by 2030 if costs reduce to $1.10 per gallon. This equates to a little over 1.42 billion barrels, or 152 days worth of oil. If ethanol is .67 the energy content of regular unleaded gasoline, this means one actually needs 1.88 billion barrels to obtain the same output of energy at current day demand. Likewise, if biodiesel is .86, the energy content of unleaded gasoline, one would need 1.61 billion barrels to obtain the same level of output
- Ethanol production has quadrupled in the US and in Brazil in recent years. Brazil uses 50% of its cane to produce ethanol
- Sugar cane ethanol prospects and challenges:
- It takes a lot of coal and gas to produce ethanol
- Sugar cellulosic, however, can yield 50% more efficiency than corn
- Factors that influence cellulosic potential include:
- Developments in improved yield
- Human population reaching 9 billion, which would greatly affect land availability
- The utilization of waste
- Energy conservation
- The uncertainties of sugar cane ethanol include:
- Competing uses
- Climate change
- Commerce transit
- Infrastructure for liquids
- Technological hurdles
- Public acceptance (market driven)
- Trade — Agricultural vs. fuel
- High tariffs in the US, Australia and Canada
- Cane ethanol fuel is more labor intensive than oil
- Tropical climate is the best for supplying
- Social/political conflict over land and water could be problematic
- The food vs. fuel debate:
- Biofuels raise food prices, especially for the poor
Summary
- Integrate and better coordinate policy frameworks
- Assess and monitor benefits and impacts of biofuels trade, use, and production
- Address negative indirect effects of biofuels trade, use, and production
- Reward positive impacts and investments, including through carbon management
- Use informed dialogues to build consensus for new projects
- Increase investment in research, development, and demonstration
- Build capacity to enable producers to manage carbon and water
- Make sure that trade policies and climate change policies work together
File Attachment:
Conversation:
